Profile: Avigdor Lieberman

Though the results of Tuesday's elections are currently being contested, Israel's kingmaker is known and will be Yisrael Beitenu's Avigdor Lieberman.

Whether it is Tzipi Livni or Bibi Netanyahu who is invited by President Shimon Peres to form the ruling coalition, the fact remains that neither can sustain a government without Lieberman.

In 1978, Avigdor immigrated to Israel from present-day Moldova (then a part of the Soviet Union), at the age of 20. After studying International Relations and Political Science at the Hebrew University, he began a career in politics and worked in various roles in the Likud party. In 1999 he founded Yisrael Beitenu, which began life as a party focusing on Israelis of Russian origin - a population which, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, numbered over one million.

A man of ambition, quickly - and in an increasingly crowded field - Lieberman managed to carve out a unique position for Yisrael Beitenu on the Israeli political landscape. Much of this success is built around a perceived courage to propose creative solutions to difficult problems. According to his critics, however, he is little short of a fascist.

In late May 2004, Lieberman proposed to exchange the 'Triangle' for large Israeli settlement blocs in the West Bank. The 'Triangle' is an area just north of the West Bank populated by around 150,000 Israeli-Arab citizens, most of whom primarily identify themselves as Palestinians. Needless to say, this plan aroused huge controversy.

While there are many bones of contention between Israeli-Arabs and the state of Israel, very few of them - if offered the choice - would prefer to live in a Palestinian state. In contrast, those in favour of the plan argue that it marks a sensible return to the original principles of partition, now redrawn to reflect new demographic realities.

By 2006, Yisrael Beitenu had 11 seats in the Knesset. In the meantime, Lieberman steadily attracted outrage and admiration in equal measure for his controversial comments regarding the ongoing conflict with the Palestinians. Following a 2003 plan to give amnesty to 350 Palestinian prisoners, he said that "it would be better to drown these prisoners in the Dead Sea." Aside from these inflammatory statements, he concentrated on broadening the party's appeal, reaching far beyond its Russian-speaking base.

Yisrael Beitenu was part of the ruling coalition until January 2008, when its ministers resigned in protest at the ongoing peace negotiations with the Palestinian Authority.

Since then, Lieberman has returned to his pet topic of Israeli-Arabs. With Israel is in the thrall of near-unprecedented consensus following the conflict in Gaza, his slogan of "no loyalty, no citizenship" has taken the country by storm. Specifically, he has proposed a law whereby every graduating student would have to swear loyalty to the state or be stripped of their citizenship.

Now Lieberman will decide the immediate political direction of the country. With all the hysteria his rhetoric arouses, his actual politics are often overlooked. It is easy to forget, for example, that he has no ideological attachment to land, and has expressed a willingness to cede Arab-populated areas of East Jerusalem to the Palestinians. He is a rightist, yes, but with little in common with the religious nationalism that has played a major role in Israeli settlement expansion over the years.

Will Lieberman bring about peace? Only time will tell. However, there is no doubt that he must be watched with extreme caution. In a country like Israel, his harsh pronouncements are highly flammable.

In 2006 he predicted Yisrael Beitenu would win 11 seats. This time he predicted 15, a figure matched by the exit polls. His prediction for next time? 30. The Lieberman story is only just beginning.

Alex Stein studied for his MPhil at Queens in 2005-06.