American statistician Nate Silver has tipped Liberal Democrat and sitting candidate, Julian Huppert, to win in Cambridge. According to Silver’s calculations with three British academics of electionforecast.co.uk, there is a 100% chance that Julian Huppert will keep his seat, while nationwide they think the Conservatives will win 283 seats and Labour 270.
Silver accurately predicted the results of all 50 US states in 2012, however warns that British elections are more difficult to predict. This is due to tactical voting, lack of polling data the more complex system, with Silver telling The Guardian, “on top of the inherent challenges, this one in particular seems very unclear what the outcome is after May.”
The Cambridge Universities Labour Club have also called into question the accuracy of this prediction, with a spokesperson telling the Cambridge Student that “this prediction takes little account of student voting intention, which is famously hard to forecast. Students have a huge amount of power to shape the result of this election, let's make sure we use it.”
Cambridge Student Liberal Democrats were equally wary, with Reece Edmends saying “It's obviously great news, but it hasn't changed our conviction that this is too close to call.”
Clearly, despite Silver’s track record, many do not want to take the result for granted and are eager to ensure their supporters turnout on polling day.